NHL · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Bell Centre
Montreal Canadiens — Detroit Red Wings
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1:0 SOCame true
In short
Final score 1:0 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Montreal Canadiens to win (65% incl. overtime), came true.
Montreal Canadiens are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 63%.
Why
- Montreal Canadiens are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.6.
- Detroit Red Wings: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Montreal Canadiens — Detroit Red Wings | 3.5–2.6 | |
| Montreal Canadiens to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 65% | |
| Detroit Red Wings to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 35% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 63% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 37% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Montreal Canadiens
- Montreal Canadiens goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Nashville Predators2:5
- 07.10Carolina Hurricanes4:6
- 04.10away · Pittsburgh Penguins5:6 OT
- 30.09away · Toronto Maple Leafs3:2
- 30.05away · Carolina Hurricanes1:6
- 10.10Seattle Kraken3:6
- 07.10Ottawa Senators5:3
- 04.10Winnipeg Jets2:3
- 03.10New York Rangers0:2
- 16.04away · Florida Panthers1:8
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Detroit Red Wings — Montreal Canadiens3:1
- 11.01.2026Montreal Canadiens — Detroit Red Wings0:4
- 10.10.2025Detroit Red Wings — Montreal Canadiens1:5
- 09.04.2025Montreal Canadiens — Detroit Red Wings4:1
- 24.01.2025Detroit Red Wings — Montreal Canadiens4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 26 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 5 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 | Detroit Red Wings | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 28 | Vancouver Canucks | 8 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
Next matches
- Detroit Red WingsNew Jersey Devils14 October · NHL59411The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- Montreal CanadiensBuffalo Sabres14 October · NHL56441The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
NHL on the same day
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 50502The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
- 29712The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
- 71291The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%3:6Final score 3:6. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%2:1SOFinal score 2:1 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 224%3:5Final score 3:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →