NHL · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Bell Centre
Montreal Canadiens — Buffalo Sabres
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:3 SOCame true
In short
Final score 4:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Montreal Canadiens to win (56% incl. overtime), came true.
Montreal Canadiens are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 64%.
Why
- Montreal Canadiens are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.9.
- Buffalo Sabres: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Montreal Canadiens — Buffalo Sabres | 3.2–2.9 | |
| Montreal Canadiens to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 56% | |
| Buffalo Sabres to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 44% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 64% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 36% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Montreal Canadiens
- Montreal Canadiens goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Detroit Red Wings1:0 SO
- 09.10Nashville Predators2:5
- 07.10Carolina Hurricanes4:6
- 04.10away · Pittsburgh Penguins5:6 OT
- 30.09away · Toronto Maple Leafs3:2
- 12.10Florida Panthers5:3
- 11.10Utah Mammoth1:4
- 09.10Dallas Stars0:4
- 07.10Minnesota Wild3:2 OT
- 04.10Chicago Blackhawks4:3
Head to head
- 19.05.2026Buffalo Sabres — Montreal Canadiens2:3 OT
- 17.05.2026Montreal Canadiens — Buffalo Sabres3:8
- 15.05.2026Buffalo Sabres — Montreal Canadiens3:6
- 13.05.2026Montreal Canadiens — Buffalo Sabres2:3
- 11.05.2026Montreal Canadiens — Buffalo Sabres6:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
Next matches
- Washington CapitalsMontreal Canadiens15 October · NHL54461The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:26.1
- Toronto Maple LeafsBuffalo Sabres16 October · NHL45552The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
NHL on the same day
- 59411The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%3:7Final score 3:7. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 59411The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.6
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%2:3SOFinal score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
- 46542The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
- 48522The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:7Final score 2:7. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.6
- 37632The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →