PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 23 October, MSK

Mountfield HK — Karlovy Vary

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 23 October

Mountfield HK45%
Draw in regulation23%
Karlovy Vary31%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Mountfield HK are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 31%.

Why

  • Mountfield HK are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Mountfield HK — No. 5, 16 pts; Karlovy Vary — No. 3, 18 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Mountfield HK 0 wins, Karlovy Vary 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mountfield HK — Karlovy Vary2.4–2.0
Mountfield HK to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Karlovy Vary to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)31%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)69%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Mountfield HK
  • Mountfield HK goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Mountfield HK

  • 11.10Olomouc3:1
  • 09.10away · Trinec2:5
  • 04.10Vitkovice3:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kladno4:3 SO
  • 29.09Sparta Prague4:3

Karlovy Vary

  • 11.10Kladno3:1
  • 09.10away · Liberec0:5
  • 04.10Plzen4:1
  • 02.10away · Vitkovice3:0
  • 28.09away · Sparta Prague1:0

Head to head

  • 23.01.2026Mountfield HK — Karlovy Vary2:3 OT
  • 19.12.2025Karlovy Vary — Mountfield HK4:1
  • 26.10.2025Mountfield HK — Karlovy Vary4:5
  • 19.09.2025Karlovy Vary — Mountfield HK3:1
  • 02.02.2025Mountfield HK — Karlovy Vary2:6

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • TrinecCeske Budejovicepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • LitvinovPlzenpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • VitkoviceKometa Brnopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
  • KladnoPardubicepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
  • LiberecSparta Praguepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:24.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →