NHL · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers — New York Islanders
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5:2Came true
In short
Final score 5:2: the model's most likely outcome, New York Rangers to win (57% incl. overtime), came true.
New York Rangers are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.3 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.
Why
- New York Rangers are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.4.
Facts
- New York Rangers: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: New York Rangers 1 win, New York Islanders 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: New York Rangers — New York Islanders | 2.8–2.5 | |
| New York Rangers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| New York Islanders to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 49% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap New York Rangers
- New York Rangers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 05.10Utah Mammoth4:2
- 03.10away · Detroit Red Wings2:0
- 02.10Tampa Bay Lightning5:1
- 30.09away · Boston Bruins0:3
- 16.04away · Tampa Bay Lightning4:2
- 04.10New Jersey Devils6:0
- 01.10away · Toronto Maple Leafs1:2
- 15.04Carolina Hurricanes1:2
- 13.04Montreal Canadiens1:4
- 11.04Ottawa Senators0:3
Head to head
- 30.01.2026New York Rangers — New York Islanders1:2
- 29.01.2026New York Islanders — New York Rangers5:2
- 28.12.2025New York Islanders — New York Rangers2:0
- 09.11.2025New York Rangers — New York Islanders0:5
- 11.04.2025New York Islanders — New York Rangers2:9
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Carolina Hurricanes | 8 | 6 | +12 | 13 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New York Rangers | 8 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Vegas Golden Knights | 8 | 6 | +10 | 12 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 21 | Washington Capitals | 6 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
Next matches
- New York IslandersChicago Blackhawks9 October · NHL64361The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
- Washington CapitalsNew York Rangers10 October · NHL55451The most likely outcome came true: 124%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.2
NHL on the same day
- 51491The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2OTFinal score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 43572The most likely outcome came true: 223%4:6Final score 4:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
- 45552The most likely outcome came true: 224%3:5Final score 3:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:4OTFinal score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.5.6
- 41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.2
- 42582The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:6Final score 2:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
- 52481The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →