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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Friday, 30 October, MSK

Omskie Krylia — Orsk

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Model prediction for 30 October

Omskie Krylia53%
Draw in regulation23%
Orsk24%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Omskie Krylia are clear favourites: 66% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 28%.

Why

  • Omskie Krylia are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 1.7.

Facts

  • League table: Omskie Krylia — No. 5, 20 pts; Orsk — No. 7, 19 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Omskie Krylia: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Omskie Krylia 4 wins, Orsk 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Omskie Krylia — Orsk2.5–1.7
Omskie Krylia to win (incl. OT and shootout)66%
Orsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)34%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)28%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)72%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Omskie Krylia
  • Omskie Krylia goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Omskie Krylia

  • 13.10Kristall Saratov7:1
  • 11.10Dizel3:2
  • 09.10Tambov5:1
  • 07.10Buran Voronezh0:1
  • 03.10Rubin Tyumen4:3

Orsk

  • 12.10away · Kaluga2:1 SO
  • 10.10away · AKM0:3
  • 08.10away · Ryazan3:2 OT
  • 30.09Bars4:0
  • 28.09Almetyevsk2:1

Head to head

  • 18.01.2026Omskie Krylia — Orsk2:1
  • 07.11.2025Orsk — Omskie Krylia1:2
  • 03.02.2025Omskie Krylia — Orsk1:2 OT
  • 17.10.2024Orsk — Omskie Krylia1:2 OT
  • 28.01.2024Omskie Krylia — Orsk2:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, PlayoffsKaluga1493232–20+1221
5, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
6, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
7, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
8, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • HC NorilskKhimikpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 1:34.9
  • PermHC Yugrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:23.8
  • TambovOlympiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →