VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Orsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Metallurg Novokuznetsk are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.
Why
- Metallurg Novokuznetsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 1.6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Orsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 1.6–2.5 | |
| Orsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 29% | |
| Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 71% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 27% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 73% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Orsk
- Orsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Kaluga2:1 SO
- 10.10away · AKM0:3
- 08.10away · Ryazan3:2 OT
- 30.09Bars4:0
- 28.09Almetyevsk2:1
- 13.10Izhevsk3:2 SO
- 11.10Olympia2:0
- 05.10away · Kristall Saratov2:0
- 03.10away · Dizel2:0
- 01.10away · Tambov0:3
Head to head
- 02.02.2026Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Orsk0:1 SO
- 16.10.2025Orsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:5
- 16.03.2025Orsk — Metallurg Novokuznetsk1:4
- 10.09.2024Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Orsk4:1
- 26.01.2024Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Orsk1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs | HC Norilsk | 15 | 9 | +2 | 20 |
| 5, Playoffs | Orsk | 12 | 8 | +13 | 19 |
| 6, Playoffs | AKM | 14 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 7, Playoffs | Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 14 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 8, Playoffs | Kaluga | 13 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
VHL on the same day
- Chelmet ChelyabinskHC Norilskpreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
- Magnitka MagnitogorskKrasnoyarskpreliminary70301The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.3
- Kristall SaratovBuran Voronezhpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.0
- BarsCSK VVSpreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
- DizelTambovpreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →