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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Pelicans — Tappara

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Model prediction for 24 October

Pelicans33%
Draw in regulation23%
Tappara44%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Tappara are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • Tappara are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Pelicans — No. 12, 16 pts; Tappara — No. 9, 19 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Tappara: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Pelicans 1 win, Tappara 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pelicans — Tappara2.2–2.5
Pelicans to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Pelicans
  • Pelicans goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Pelicans

  • 09.10Karpat2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · KooKoo6:3
  • 26.09IFK Helsinki2:1
  • 22.09away · Jokerit0:3
  • 19.09JYP1:3

Tappara

  • 10.10TPS Turku4:3 SO
  • 09.10away · KalPa3:2
  • 02.10Jokerit3:2 OT
  • 30.09KooKoo3:0
  • 26.09SaiPa2:4

Head to head

  • 15.09.2026Pelicans — Tappara2:3
  • 20.02.2026Pelicans — Tappara4:3
  • 26.12.2025Tappara — Pelicans5:0
  • 15.11.2025Tappara — Pelicans2:0
  • 22.10.2025Pelicans — Tappara2:5

Full record: 18 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116
13, Relegation play-offKalPa11401627–29-213

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
  • IlvesJukuritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • JYPAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.3
  • KarpatKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • KooKooJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • TPS TurkuLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.8
  • Vaasan SportSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →