Liiga (Finnish hockey league): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 445 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 445 matches 10,000 times. Ilves have the best chance to win the regular season: 23%, JYP 20%. Closest to the drop: Vaasan Sport (30%).
Race for first place
| Date | Ilves | SaiPa | JYP | KooKoo | Tappara | Kiekko-Espoo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 September | 12% | 13% | 9% | 18% | 17% | 3% |
| 14 September | 20% | 14% | 19% | 8% | 17% | 6% |
| 21 September | 16% | 18% | 30% | 1% | 15% | 8% |
| 28 September | 21% | 33% | 26% | — | 7% | 5% |
| 5 October | 38% | 17% | 18% | <1% | 9% | 3% |
| 12 October | 24% | 17% | 19% | — | 14% | 8% |
| 14 October | 23% | 16% | 20% | <1% | 14% | 8% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Incl. play-in” counts “Straight to QF” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Straight to QF | Incl. play-in | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilves | 26 (12) | 122 | 14 | 23%▼15 | 65%▼13 | 98%▼1 | 1% | <1% |
| 2 | JYP | 21 (10) | 119 | 17 | 20%▲2 | 58% | 97%▼1 | 3%▲1 | <1% |
| 3 | SaiPa | 20 (11) | 118 | 16 | 16%▼1 | 56%▼7 | 98%▼1 | 2%▲1 | <1% |
| 4 | Tappara | 19 (11) | 116 | 15 | 14%▲5 | 51%▲4 | 97%▲1 | 3%▼1 | <1% |
| 5 | Kiekko-Espoo | 20 (13) | 111 | 11 | 8%▲5 | 39%▲13 | 95%▲2 | 5%▼2 | <1% |
| 6 | Lukko | 20 (11) | 108 | 12 | 7%▲6 | 33%▲17 | 92%▲7 | 7%▼8 | <1%▼1 |
| 7 | Assat | 22 (12) | 104 | 7 | 4%▲1 | 24%▲3 | 89%▲2 | 11%▼2 | <1% |
| 8 | Karpat | 22 (13) | 100 | 13 | 2%▲1 | 19%▲5 | 85%▲6 | 14%▼6 | 1% |
| 9 | TPS Turku | 16 (11) | 97 | 9 | 2%▲1 | 15%▲3 | 79%▼1 | 19%▼1 | 1% |
| 10 | KalPa | 13 (11) | 94 | 10 | 2%▼3 | 12%▼18 | 75%▼17 | 23%▲15 | 2%▲2 |
| 11 | Jukurit | 24 (14) | 93 | 2 | 1%▼1 | 9%▼11 | 77%▼11 | 23%▲11 | 1%▲1 |
| 12 | Pelicans | 16 (10) | 92 | 5 | 1% | 10%▼1 | 71%▼6 | 26%▲4 | 2%▲1 |
| 13 | IFK Helsinki | 13 (11) | 83 | 3 | <1% | 4%▲2 | 51%▲14 | 43%▼10 | 6%▼4 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 18 (12) | 80 | 4 | <1% | 2%▲1 | 44%▲9 | 50%▼6 | 7%▼2 |
| 15 | Jokerit | 10 (13) | 67 | 6 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 18%▼9 | 58%▼1 | 23%▲9 |
| 16 | KooKoo | 4 (12) | 66 | 8 | <1% | <1% | 18%▼4 | 54%▲1 | 27%▲3 |
| 17 | Vaasan Sport | 13 (11) | 63 | 1 | — | <1% | 13%▲5 | 57%▲3 | 30%▼7 |
Chance of every place
Show the 17 × 17 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves | 23 | 17 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| JYP | 20 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| SaiPa | 16 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Tappara | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Kiekko-Espoo | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Lukko | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Assat | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Karpat | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| TPS Turku | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| KalPa | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Jukurit | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Pelicans | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| IFK Helsinki | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | |
| Hameenlinna | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 7 | ||
| Jokerit | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 21 | 23 | ||||||
| KooKoo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 27 | |||||
| Vaasan Sport | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 30 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.