NHL · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins — Dallas Stars
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2:1 SOMissed
In short
Final score 2:1 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Dallas Stars to win (59% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 59% fails in about 41 matches out of 100 on average.
Dallas Stars are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 62%.
Why
- Dallas Stars are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.7.
- Pittsburgh Penguins: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Facts
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Pittsburgh Penguins 1 win, Dallas Stars 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pittsburgh Penguins — Dallas Stars | 2.8–3.3 | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 41% | |
| Dallas Stars to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 59% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 62% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 38% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Pittsburgh Penguins
- Pittsburgh Penguins goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 10.10away · Columbus Blue Jackets2:3 SO
- 08.10away · Washington Capitals3:5
- 06.10Winnipeg Jets2:3
- 04.10Montreal Canadiens6:5 OT
- 01.10away · Philadelphia Flyers7:0
- 09.10away · Buffalo Sabres4:0
- 06.10San Jose Sharks5:0
- 04.10away · Nashville Predators1:2
- 03.10St. Louis Blues0:4
- 01.05away · Minnesota Wild2:5
Head to head
- 29.03.2026Pittsburgh Penguins — Dallas Stars3:6
- 08.12.2025Dallas Stars — Pittsburgh Penguins3:2 SO
- 05.04.2025Dallas Stars — Pittsburgh Penguins3:5
- 12.11.2024Pittsburgh Penguins — Dallas Stars1:7
- 23.03.2024Dallas Stars — Pittsburgh Penguins4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 7 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 24 | San Jose Sharks | 6 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 25 | Dallas Stars | 6 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 26 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 5 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
Next matches
- Chicago BlackhawksPittsburgh Penguins14 October · NHL37632The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
- Dallas StarsColorado Avalanche14 October · NHL45552The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
NHL on the same day
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 50502The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
- 29712The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.4
- 71291The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%3:6Final score 3:6. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%1:0SOFinal score 1:0 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2SOFinal score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 224%3:5Final score 3:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →