Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 10 October, 20:45 MSK · St. Galler Kantonalbank Arena

Rapperswil-Jona — Lausanne

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Model prediction and result

1:4Missed

Rapperswil-Jona41%

Draw in regulation22%

Lausanne38%

Model estimate at 20:10 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Rapperswil-Jona to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

Close to a coin flip: Rapperswil-Jona 51%, Lausanne 49% including overtime.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.7.
Rapperswil-Jona: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rapperswil-Jona — Lausanne		2.8–2.7
Rapperswil-Jona to win (incl. OT and shootout)		51%
Lausanne to win (incl. OT and shootout)		49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		51%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Rapperswil-Jona
Rapperswil-Jona goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Rapperswil-Jona

09.10away · Langnau Tigers0:3
03.10Bern4:3 OT
02.10away · Lugano2:5
29.09Zug2:5
26.09away · Ajoie5:4 OT

Lausanne

07.10Lugano2:5
03.10away · Zurich2:3 OT
02.10Biel7:4
30.09Servette6:5 SO
29.09away · Ajoie0:3

Head to head

18.01.2026Lausanne — Rapperswil-Jona3:4 OT
25.11.2025Rapperswil-Jona — Lausanne3:4
21.10.2025Lausanne — Rapperswil-Jona2:1 OT
19.09.2025Rapperswil-Jona — Lausanne0:4
22.02.2025Rapperswil-Jona — Lausanne3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	11	4	1	1	5	34–38	-4	15
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	10	4	1	1	4	26–32	-6	15
11	Davos	11	4	0	1	6	27–31	-4	13
12	Rapperswil-Jona	11	2	2	1	6	28–42	-14	11
13, Relegation play-off	Biel	10	3	0	1	6	31–35	-4	10

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

20:45
LausanneAjoie14 October · National League
7723
1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
20:45
ZurichRapperswil-Jona16 October · National League
7327
1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.1

National League on the same day

20:45
AjoieLangnau Tigers
3862
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.2
20:45
Ambri-PiottaBern
5050
2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
20:45
BielLugano
5446
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
20:45
ServetteDavos
5446
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:2, exactly right.5.2
20:45
ZurichFribourg
6139
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →