SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Rogle — Frolunda
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Rogle are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 34%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rogle — Frolunda | 2.4–2.1 | |
| Rogle to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Frolunda to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 34% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 66% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Rogle
- Rogle goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · IF Bjorkloven2:3
- 08.10away · Timra1:4
- 03.10Djurgarden4:2
- 01.10Brynas2:1
- 26.09away · Malmo2:1
Head to head
- 05.03.2026Frolunda — Rogle2:3 OT
- 26.12.2025Rogle — Frolunda2:5
- 28.10.2025Rogle — Frolunda2:0
- 11.10.2025Frolunda — Rogle4:1
- 04.03.2025Frolunda — Rogle0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Farjestad | 8 | 7 | +26 | 22 |
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Frolunda | 8 | 5 | +6 | 17 |
| 3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | IF Bjorkloven | 8 | 5 | +2 | 17 |
| 5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Brynas | 8 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Rogle | 8 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Orebro | 8 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
SHL on the same day
- IF BjorklovenMalmopreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
- OrebroBrynaspreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
- SkellefteaDjurgardenpreliminary79211The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.3
- TimraFarjestadpreliminary42582The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
- VaxjoLuleapreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →