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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK

Timra — Farjestad

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Model prediction for 22 October

Timra33%
Draw in regulation22%
Farjestad45%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Farjestad are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Farjestad are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Timra — Farjestad2.3–2.7
Timra to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Farjestad to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Timra
  • Timra goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Timra

  • 10.10away · Lulea3:2 OT
  • 08.10Frolunda4:1
  • 03.10Skelleftea1:4
  • 01.10away · Rogle1:4
  • 29.09away · Brynas0:1

Farjestad

  • 10.10Malmo6:2
  • 08.10away · Skelleftea5:1
  • 03.10HV 713:1
  • 01.10away · Djurgarden4:0
  • 26.09away · IF Bjorkloven5:0

Head to head

  • 12.03.2026Farjestad — Timra3:2
  • 24.01.2026Timra — Farjestad8:2
  • 28.10.2025Farjestad — Timra1:2
  • 20.09.2025Timra — Farjestad1:0
  • 01.03.2025Timra — Farjestad2:4

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad8701034–8+2622
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda8510226–20+617
12HV 718121424–29-58
13, Relegation play-offTimra8120515–22-77
14, Relegation play-offLinkoping7201412–23-117

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • IF BjorklovenMalmopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • OrebroBrynaspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
  • RogleFrolundapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
  • SkellefteaDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.3
  • VaxjoLuleapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →