Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Thursday, 15 October, MSK
SaiPa — Hameenlinna
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
SaiPa are clear favourites: 67% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.
Why
- SaiPa are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.0.
Facts
- League table: SaiPa — No. 7, 20 pts; Hameenlinna — No. 10, 18 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Hameenlinna: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: SaiPa 4 wins, Hameenlinna 1.
- Days of rest before the match: SaiPa 7, Hameenlinna 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: SaiPa — Hameenlinna | 2.8–2.0 | |
| SaiPa to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 67% | |
| Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 33% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 40% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 60% |
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- Totals incl. OT
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- SaiPa goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
Head to head
- 28.02.2026SaiPa — Hameenlinna0:3
- 27.02.2026Hameenlinna — SaiPa1:5
- 10.10.2025Hameenlinna — SaiPa1:2
- 01.10.2025SaiPa — Hameenlinna3:2 OT
- 14.03.2025Hameenlinna — SaiPa2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Kiekko-Espoo | 13 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | SaiPa | 11 | 5 | +10 | 20 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lukko | 11 | 6 | +6 | 20 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Tappara | 11 | 5 | +8 | 19 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | -7 | 18 |
| 11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | TPS Turku | 11 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
Liiga on the same day
- 36642The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →