AHL (American Hockey League) · Thursday, 15 October, MSK
San Diego Gulls — Ontario Reign
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Ontario Reign are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.4 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.
Why
- Ontario Reign are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.5.
Facts
- League table: San Diego Gulls — No. 15, 5 pts; Ontario Reign — No. 12, 4 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: San Diego Gulls 2 wins, Ontario Reign 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: San Diego Gulls — Ontario Reign | 2.5–2.8 | |
| San Diego Gulls to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 44% | |
| Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 56% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 50% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 50% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap San Diego Gulls
- San Diego Gulls goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 11.10Henderson Silver Knights2:0
- 10.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:6
- 05.10away · San Jose Barracuda4:5 OT
- 04.10away · San Jose Barracuda5:1
- 25.04away · Colorado Eagles1:6
- 12.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:2 OT
- 04.10Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds6:5 OT
- 10.05Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 08.05away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
Head to head
- 18.04.2026Ontario Reign — San Diego Gulls4:1
- 01.02.2026San Diego Gulls — Ontario Reign4:3
- 09.11.2025Ontario Reign — San Diego Gulls4:3 OT
- 08.11.2025San Diego Gulls — Ontario Reign6:4
- 19.04.2025Ontario Reign — San Diego Gulls2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grand Rapids Griffins | 5 | 3 | +4 | 7 | .700 |
| 12 | Ontario Reign | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4 | .667 |
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 14 | Rochester Americans | 4 | 2 | +6 | 5 | .625 |
| 15 | San Diego Gulls | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | .625 |
| 16 | Iowa Wild | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | .625 |
AHL on the same day
- 50502The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.8
- 50502The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →