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KHL · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Bolshoy Ice Dome

Sochi — Spartak Moscow

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Sochi19%
Draw in regulation19%
Spartak Moscow62%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Spartak Moscow to win (74% incl. overtime), came true.

Spartak Moscow are clear favourites: 74% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.

Why

  • Spartak Moscow are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sochi — Spartak Moscow2.0–3.4
Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout)26%
Spartak Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)74%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)50%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Sochi
  • Sochi goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Sochi

  • 07.10Spartak Moscow2:5
  • 03.10Nizhny Novgorod0:6
  • 30.09Salavat Ufa6:3
  • 28.09away · Shanghai1:4
  • 26.09away · Cherepovets1:3

Spartak Moscow

  • 07.10away · Sochi5:2
  • 04.10Barys Astana3:4 SO
  • 02.10Magnitogorsk0:2
  • 30.09Tractor Chelyabinsk2:4
  • 26.09Yekaterinburg2:4

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026Sochi — Spartak Moscow2:5
  • 04.11.2025Sochi — Spartak Moscow0:1 OT
  • 02.11.2025Sochi — Spartak Moscow5:2
  • 26.10.2025Spartak Moscow — Sochi5:3
  • 07.09.2025Spartak Moscow — Sochi4:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow1472536–28+816
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
20Tractor Chelyabinsk1350824–33-910
21Sochi14301119–49-306
22Lada15141024–59-356

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Bars KazanSochi12 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
  • KhabarovskSpartak Moscow14 October · KHL
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8

KHL on the same day

  • MagnitogorskSalavat Ufa
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 7:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • Dynamo MoscowCSKA Moscow
    2The most likely outcome came true: 224%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:2.4.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →