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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 1 November, MSK

Sparta Prague — Litvinov

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Model prediction for 1 November

Sparta Prague65%
Draw in regulation18%
Litvinov17%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Sparta Prague are clear favourites: 77% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

  • Sparta Prague are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • League table: Sparta Prague — No. 8, 14 pts; Litvinov — No. 10, 12 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sparta Prague 4 wins, Litvinov 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sparta Prague — Litvinov3.3–1.8
Sparta Prague to win (incl. OT and shootout)77%
Litvinov to win (incl. OT and shootout)23%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)55%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Sparta Prague
  • Sparta Prague goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Sparta Prague

  • 11.10Vitkovice3:0
  • 08.10Kometa Brno3:4 OT
  • 04.10away · Pardubice4:6
  • 01.10Ceske Budejovice4:2
  • 29.09away · Mountfield HK3:4

Litvinov

  • 11.10away · Mlada Boleslav1:2
  • 09.10Olomouc3:1
  • 04.10Kladno2:3 OT
  • 02.10away · Trinec2:3
  • 29.09Liberec5:4 SO

Head to head

  • 25.09.2026Litvinov — Sparta Prague1:4
  • 13.01.2026Sparta Prague — Litvinov5:1
  • 19.12.2025Litvinov — Sparta Prague3:2
  • 26.10.2025Sparta Prague — Litvinov2:1
  • 19.09.2025Litvinov — Sparta Prague1:5

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKladno10322329–32-315
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSparta Prague10402431–28+314
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLiberec10402429–29014
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKometa Brno9221425–28-311

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • PardubiceMlada Boleslavpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 3:15.0
  • LiberecMountfield HKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • PlzenKladnopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.4
  • Ceske BudejoviceKarlovy Varypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • Kometa BrnoOlomoucpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:15.0
  • VitkoviceTrinecpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →