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KHL · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK · Megasport Arena

Spartak Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk

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Model prediction and result

2:4Missed
Spartak Moscow43%
Draw in regulation21%
Tractor Chelyabinsk36%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Spartak Moscow to win (54% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.

Spartak Moscow are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 53%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 2.7.

Facts

  • Spartak Moscow: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Spartak Moscow 4 wins, Tractor Chelyabinsk 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Spartak Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk2.9–2.7
Spartak Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Tractor Chelyabinsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)53%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)47%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Spartak Moscow
  • Spartak Moscow goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Spartak Moscow

  • 26.09Yekaterinburg2:4
  • 24.09Avangard Omsk1:2 OT
  • 20.09away · Salavat Ufa1:3
  • 18.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk3:1
  • 16.09away · Magnitogorsk3:2

Tractor Chelyabinsk

  • 28.09away · Dynamo Moscow2:1 OT
  • 25.09SKA St. Petersburg3:4
  • 20.09Avangard Omsk2:1
  • 18.09Spartak Moscow1:3
  • 15.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:4

Head to head

  • 18.09.2026Tractor Chelyabinsk — Spartak Moscow1:3
  • 30.09.2025Spartak Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk6:3
  • 21.09.2025Tractor Chelyabinsk — Spartak Moscow3:5
  • 01.10.2024Spartak Moscow — Tractor Chelyabinsk2:3 SO
  • 23.09.2024Tractor Chelyabinsk — Spartak Moscow2:3 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow1582538–29+918
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai1281336–29+717
19Avangard Omsk1360722–34-1212
20Tractor Chelyabinsk1350824–33-910
21Sochi14301119–49-306

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Bars KazanTractor Chelyabinsk2 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Spartak MoscowMagnitogorsk2 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6

KHL on the same day

  • YekaterinburgLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Bars KazanBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.0
  • Lokomotiv YaroslavlNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.4.0
  • ShanghaiMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:5.6.1
  • SochiSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 219%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →