NHL · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Tampa Bay Lightning — Winnipeg Jets
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.3 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.4.
Facts
- League table: Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 13, 8 pts; Winnipeg Jets — No. 10, 9 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Tampa Bay Lightning 2 wins, Winnipeg Jets 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tampa Bay Lightning — Winnipeg Jets | 2.9–2.4 | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 60% | |
| Winnipeg Jets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 40% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 50% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tampa Bay Lightning goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · New York Rangers1:4
- 11.10away · New York Islanders5:3
- 09.10Minnesota Wild3:2
- 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
- 04.10Washington Capitals3:1
- 14.10Minnesota Wild5:2
- 10.10Anaheim Ducks1:5
- 08.10Colorado Avalanche3:2
- 06.10away · Pittsburgh Penguins3:2
- 04.10away · Detroit Red Wings3:2
Head to head
- 06.03.2026Winnipeg Jets — Tampa Bay Lightning4:1
- 30.01.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — Winnipeg Jets4:1
- 15.11.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Winnipeg Jets4:1
- 03.11.2024Winnipeg Jets — Tampa Bay Lightning7:4
- 03.01.2024Winnipeg Jets — Tampa Bay Lightning4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Minnesota Wild | 7 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 6 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 11, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Colorado Avalanche | 6 | 4 | +10 | 8 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
NHL on the same day
- Carolina HurricanesColumbus Blue Jacketspreliminary66341The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:25.7
- Pittsburgh PenguinsUtah Mammothpreliminary49512The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:56.0
- Detroit Red WingsChicago Blackhawkspreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Dallas StarsMontreal Canadienspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Minnesota WildNew York Islanderspreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Nashville PredatorsWashington Capitalspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
- St. Louis BluesBoston Bruinspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Anaheim DucksBuffalo Sabrespreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:56.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →