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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Sunday, 1 November, MSK

Tappara — Hameenlinna

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Model prediction for 1 November

Tappara60%
Draw in regulation20%
Hameenlinna20%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Tappara are clear favourites: 72% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Tappara are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 1.9.

Facts

  • League table: Tappara — No. 9, 19 pts; Hameenlinna — No. 11, 18 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Tappara: 4 wins in a row; Hameenlinna: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Tappara 4 wins, Hameenlinna 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tappara — Hameenlinna3.0–1.9
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)72%
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)28%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Tappara
  • Tappara goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

Tappara

  • 10.10TPS Turku4:3 SO
  • 09.10away · KalPa3:2
  • 02.10Jokerit3:2 OT
  • 30.09KooKoo3:0
  • 26.09SaiPa2:4

Hameenlinna

  • 10.10KooKoo5:3
  • 09.10away · Assat3:2 SO
  • 03.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 02.10JYP2:1
  • 29.09away · Jokerit0:3

Head to head

  • 07.04.2026Tappara — Hameenlinna1:0
  • 04.04.2026Hameenlinna — Tappara3:4 OT
  • 02.04.2026Tappara — Hameenlinna3:1
  • 30.03.2026Hameenlinna — Tappara2:1
  • 28.03.2026Tappara — Hameenlinna2:1

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku12511533–28+518
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →