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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Tampere Deck Arena

Tappara — TPS Turku

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Model prediction and result

4:3 SOCame true
Tappara55%
Draw in regulation21%
TPS Turku24%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Tappara to win (68% incl. overtime), came true.

Tappara are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • Tappara are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.1.
  • Tappara: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Facts

  • Tappara: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Tappara 2 wins, TPS Turku 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tappara — TPS Turku3.0–2.0
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)68%
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)32%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Tappara
  • Tappara goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Tappara

  • 09.10away · KalPa3:2
  • 02.10Jokerit3:2 OT
  • 30.09KooKoo3:0
  • 26.09SaiPa2:4
  • 24.09away · Lukko2:3

TPS Turku

  • 03.10JYP4:1
  • 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
  • 27.09away · Ilves2:3
  • 25.09away · Jokerit2:1
  • 19.09away · Hameenlinna1:3

Head to head

  • 17.09.2026TPS Turku — Tappara4:0
  • 24.01.2026Tappara — TPS Turku4:3
  • 17.01.2026TPS Turku — Tappara4:2
  • 13.12.2025TPS Turku — Tappara3:5
  • 23.09.2025Tappara — TPS Turku1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • IFK HelsinkiTPS Turku14 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • TapparaLukko16 October · Liiga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.2

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaKooKoo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.1
  • JokeritIlves
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:3.4.9
  • JukuritKarpat
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 3:2.5.0
  • IFK HelsinkiKalPa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →