NHL · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs — Nashville Predators
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
5:4 OTCame true
In short
Final score 5:4 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Toronto Maple Leafs to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Toronto Maple Leafs 53%, Nashville Predators 47% including overtime.
5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 56%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 2.7.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Toronto Maple Leafs 3 wins, Nashville Predators 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — Nashville Predators | 2.9–2.7 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Nashville Predators to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 56% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
- 30.09Montreal Canadiens2:3
- 16.04away · Ottawa Senators1:3
- 14.04Dallas Stars5:6
- 04.10Dallas Stars2:1
- 02.10Minnesota Wild1:3
- 17.04Anaheim Ducks4:5
- 14.04San Jose Sharks2:3
- 12.04Minnesota Wild2:1
Head to head
- 21.12.2025Nashville Predators — Toronto Maple Leafs5:3
- 15.10.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Nashville Predators7:4
- 23.03.2025Nashville Predators — Toronto Maple Leafs5:2
- 05.12.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — Nashville Predators3:2
- 10.12.2023Toronto Maple Leafs — Nashville Predators4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | Washington Capitals | 6 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 22 | Nashville Predators | 6 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 23 | New Jersey Devils | 6 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
Next matches
- Montreal CanadiensNashville Predators9 October · NHL56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- Vegas Golden KnightsToronto Maple Leafs9 October · NHL65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
NHL on the same day
- 51491The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2OTFinal score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 123%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 43572The most likely outcome came true: 223%4:6Final score 4:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
- 45552The most likely outcome came true: 224%3:5Final score 3:5. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
- 57431The most likely outcome came true: 124%5:2Final score 5:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
- 41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.2
- 42582The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:6Final score 2:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.3
- 52481The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →