NHL · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Close to a coin flip: Toronto Maple Leafs 48%, New York Islanders 52% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 56%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders | 2.8–2.9 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| New York Islanders to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 56% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Colorado Avalanche6:3
- 09.10away · Vegas Golden Knights3:4 SO
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
- 11.10Tampa Bay Lightning3:5
- 09.10Chicago Blackhawks4:1
- 07.10away · New York Rangers2:5
- 04.10New Jersey Devils6:0
- 01.10away · Toronto Maple Leafs1:2
Head to head
- 01.10.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders2:1
- 10.04.2026New York Islanders — Toronto Maple Leafs5:3
- 18.03.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Islanders1:3
- 04.01.2026New York Islanders — Toronto Maple Leafs4:3 OT
- 03.01.2025New York Islanders — Toronto Maple Leafs1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 24 | St. Louis Blues | 5 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 25 | New York Islanders | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 26 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 5 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
NHL on the same day
- 57431The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
- 33672The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:45.2
- 51491The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.4
- 59411The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.6
- 50501The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
- 42582The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:44.9
- 50502The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.3
- 59411The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →