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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Toros Neftekamsk — Kurgan

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Model prediction for 24 October

Toros Neftekamsk42%
Draw in regulation24%
Kurgan35%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Toros Neftekamsk are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 29%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Toros Neftekamsk — Kurgan2.2–2.0
Toros Neftekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Kurgan to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)29%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)71%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Toros Neftekamsk
  • Toros Neftekamsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Toros Neftekamsk

  • 13.10away · Krasnoyarsk0:2
  • 10.10away · HC Norilsk3:5
  • 05.10Kaluga0:1
  • 03.10AKM0:3
  • 01.10Ryazan3:0

Kurgan

  • 13.10Dizel4:3
  • 11.10Tambov0:3
  • 09.10Buran Voronezh2:3 SO
  • 01.10Rubin Tyumen2:3 SO
  • 29.09HC Yugra0:3

Head to head

  • 28.12.2025Toros Neftekamsk — Kurgan2:1
  • 21.11.2025Kurgan — Toros Neftekamsk1:3
  • 06.03.2025Toros Neftekamsk — Kurgan0:3
  • 16.09.2024Kurgan — Toros Neftekamsk1:2 SO
  • 18.02.2024Toros Neftekamsk — Kurgan2:3

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
16, PlayoffsMagnitka Magnitogorsk1154224–20+414
17Toros Neftekamsk1362530–31-114
18Ryazan1554630–32-214
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410
27CSK VVS16411131–56-259

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • Dinamo St. PetersburgAKMpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.3
  • SKA-VMF St. PetersburgRyazanpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
  • Zvezda MoscowKalugapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 225%Model's score: 1:23.7
  • PermOmskie Kryliapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
  • IzhevskRubin Tyumenpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • OlympiaHC Yugrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 1:33.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →