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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 26 October, MSK

Toros Neftekamsk — Rubin Tyumen

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Model prediction for 26 October

Toros Neftekamsk36%
Draw in regulation24%
Rubin Tyumen40%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Rubin Tyumen are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 28%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Toros Neftekamsk — Rubin Tyumen2.0–2.1
Toros Neftekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Rubin Tyumen to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)28%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)72%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Toros Neftekamsk
  • Toros Neftekamsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Toros Neftekamsk

  • 13.10away · Krasnoyarsk0:2
  • 10.10away · HC Norilsk3:5
  • 05.10Kaluga0:1
  • 03.10AKM0:3
  • 01.10Ryazan3:0

Rubin Tyumen

  • 13.10Tambov3:2 OT
  • 11.10Buran Voronezh4:3 SO
  • 03.10away · Omskie Krylia3:4
  • 01.10away · Kurgan3:2 SO
  • 27.09HC Yugra4:3

Head to head

  • 26.12.2025Toros Neftekamsk — Rubin Tyumen2:0
  • 19.11.2025Rubin Tyumen — Toros Neftekamsk3:2
  • 02.03.2025Toros Neftekamsk — Rubin Tyumen2:4
  • 20.09.2024Rubin Tyumen — Toros Neftekamsk4:5 OT
  • 15.12.2023Toros Neftekamsk — Rubin Tyumen2:3

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
16, PlayoffsMagnitka Magnitogorsk1154224–20+414
17Toros Neftekamsk1362530–31-114
18Ryazan1554630–32-214
19Rubin Tyumen1270529–32-314
20Dinamo St. Petersburg1361637–42-513

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • PermKurganpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • IzhevskHC Yugrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 1:34.0
  • Dinamo St. PetersburgKalugapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.0
  • SKA-VMF St. PetersburgAKMpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →