Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
TPS Turku — Ilves
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
Ilves are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.5.
Facts
- League table: TPS Turku — No. 11, 16 pts; Ilves — No. 1, 26 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: TPS Turku 1 win, Ilves 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: TPS Turku — Ilves | 2.3–2.5 | |
| TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 40% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap TPS Turku
- TPS Turku goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Tappara3:4 SO
- 03.10JYP4:1
- 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
- 27.09away · Ilves2:3
- 25.09away · Jokerit2:1
- 10.10away · Jokerit3:0
- 09.10Lukko1:5
- 07.10away · Vaasan Sport1:2
- 03.10Kiekko-Espoo6:4
- 29.09Jukurit3:2
Head to head
- 27.09.2026Ilves — TPS Turku3:2
- 07.03.2026TPS Turku — Ilves1:4
- 03.01.2026Ilves — TPS Turku5:2
- 18.10.2025TPS Turku — Ilves4:3 OT
- 17.10.2025Ilves — TPS Turku4:3 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ilves | 12 | 8 | +12 | 26 |
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Jukurit | 14 | 6 | +7 | 24 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | -7 | 18 |
| 11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | TPS Turku | 11 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
| 12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Pelicans | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
Liiga on the same day
- 50502The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.1
- 49512The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.7
- 66341The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.0
- 62381The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- 49512The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →