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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

TPS Turku — Lukko

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Model prediction for 24 October

TPS Turku36%
Draw in regulation23%
Lukko41%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lukko are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.5.

Facts

  • League table: TPS Turku — No. 11, 16 pts; Lukko — No. 8, 20 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: TPS Turku 1 win, Lukko 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: TPS Turku — Lukko2.4–2.5
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap TPS Turku
  • TPS Turku goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

TPS Turku

  • 10.10away · Tappara3:4 SO
  • 03.10JYP4:1
  • 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
  • 27.09away · Ilves2:3
  • 25.09away · Jokerit2:1

Lukko

  • 09.10away · Ilves5:1
  • 03.10Assat2:5
  • 02.10away · Assat3:0
  • 26.09away · KalPa2:1
  • 24.09Tappara3:2

Head to head

  • 04.03.2026TPS Turku — Lukko3:4 SO
  • 06.02.2026Lukko — TPS Turku3:2
  • 05.12.2025Lukko — TPS Turku4:2
  • 13.09.2025TPS Turku — Lukko3:0
  • 14.03.2025TPS Turku — Lukko1:4

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsPelicans10501424–23+116

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • HameenlinnaIFK Helsinkipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
  • IlvesJukuritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • JYPAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.3
  • KarpatKalPapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.4
  • KooKooJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
  • PelicansTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • Vaasan SportSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →