KHL · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Traktor Arena
Tractor Chelyabinsk — Novosibirsk
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1:2Missed
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Tractor Chelyabinsk to win (69% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 69% fails in about 31 matches out of 100 on average.
Tractor Chelyabinsk are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.
4.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.
Why
- Tractor Chelyabinsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 1.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tractor Chelyabinsk — Novosibirsk | 2.9–1.9 | |
| Tractor Chelyabinsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 69% | |
| Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 31% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 40% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 60% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Tractor Chelyabinsk
- Tractor Chelyabinsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 08.10Khabarovsk0:2
- 06.10Khabarovsk1:2
- 02.10away · Bars Kazan3:2
- 30.09away · Spartak Moscow4:2
- 28.09away · Dynamo Moscow2:1 OT
- 07.10Salavat Ufa4:5 OT
- 04.10away · Niznekamsk2:3
- 02.10away · Salavat Ufa4:2
- 30.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:3
- 27.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
Head to head
- 31.01.2026Novosibirsk — Tractor Chelyabinsk1:3
- 11.01.2026Tractor Chelyabinsk — Novosibirsk4:1
- 02.11.2025Tractor Chelyabinsk — Novosibirsk4:3
- 25.10.2025Novosibirsk — Tractor Chelyabinsk3:4 SO
- 22.01.2025Tractor Chelyabinsk — Novosibirsk3:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 18 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 | Avangard Omsk | 13 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 13 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | Sochi | 14 | 3 | -30 | 6 |
Next matches
- Barys AstanaNovosibirsk12 October · KHL55451The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- ShanghaiTractor Chelyabinsk14 October · KHL40602The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.1
KHL on the same day
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:3OTFinal score 4:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
- 35652The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%5:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.0
- 60401The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 124%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →