KHL · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Barys Arena
Barys Astana — Novosibirsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:3Missed
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Barys Astana to win (55% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
Barys Astana are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.
Why
- Barys Astana are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barys Astana — Novosibirsk | 2.5–2.2 | |
| Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 39% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 61% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Barys Astana
- Barys Astana goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10Avangard Omsk5:1
- 04.10away · Spartak Moscow4:3 SO
- 02.10away · Niznekamsk5:4 OT
- 30.09away · Bars Kazan1:4
- 27.09SKA St. Petersburg3:5
- 10.10away · Tractor Chelyabinsk2:1
- 07.10Salavat Ufa4:5 OT
- 04.10away · Niznekamsk2:3
- 02.10away · Salavat Ufa4:2
- 30.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:3
Head to head
- 07.09.2026Barys Astana — Novosibirsk7:1
- 20.03.2026Novosibirsk — Barys Astana2:1 SO
- 07.12.2025Barys Astana — Novosibirsk1:2 SO
- 01.12.2025Novosibirsk — Barys Astana4:1
- 14.10.2025Barys Astana — Novosibirsk3:4 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Dinamo Minsk | 15 | 6 | -6 | 17 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Barys Astana | 14 | 8 | +14 | 16 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 18 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 | Avangard Omsk | 13 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
Next matches
- Salavat UfaNovosibirsk14 October · KHL65351The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
- Barys AstanaYekaterinburg14 October · KHL42582The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8
KHL on the same day
- 59411The most likely outcome came true: 122%1:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
- 60401The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
- 77231The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
- 32682The most likely outcome came true: 220%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →