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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 23 October, MSK

Trinec — Ceske Budejovice

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Model prediction for 23 October

Trinec54%
Draw in regulation20%
Ceske Budejovice25%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Trinec are clear favourites: 67% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • Trinec are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • League table: Trinec — No. 1, 28 pts; Ceske Budejovice — No. 6, 16 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Trinec 3 wins, Ceske Budejovice 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Trinec — Ceske Budejovice3.1–2.2
Trinec to win (incl. OT and shootout)67%
Ceske Budejovice to win (incl. OT and shootout)33%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Trinec
  • Trinec goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Trinec

  • 11.10away · Pardubice4:5 OT
  • 09.10Mountfield HK5:2
  • 04.10away · Olomouc9:0
  • 02.10Litvinov3:2
  • 29.09Kladno6:4

Ceske Budejovice

  • 11.10Liberec4:3
  • 08.10away · Plzen1:4
  • 05.10Kometa Brno5:1
  • 01.10away · Sparta Prague2:4
  • 29.09away · Pardubice2:5

Head to head

  • 25.01.2026Trinec — Ceske Budejovice2:1
  • 21.12.2025Ceske Budejovice — Trinec1:0
  • 28.10.2025Trinec — Ceske Budejovice6:3
  • 21.09.2025Ceske Budejovice — Trinec2:3
  • 28.01.2025Ceske Budejovice — Trinec3:2 OT

Full record: 19 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsTrinec10901049–23+2628
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMountfield HK10420428–26+216
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsCeske Budejovice10501427–31-416
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKladno10322329–32-315

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • LitvinovPlzenpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.3
  • VitkoviceKometa Brnopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
  • KladnoPardubicepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
  • LiberecSparta Praguepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:24.9
  • Mountfield HKKarlovy Varypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →