NHL · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Delta Center
Utah Mammoth — Toronto Maple Leafs
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
5:4Came true
In short
Final score 5:4: the model's most likely outcome, Utah Mammoth to win (61% incl. overtime), came true.
Utah Mammoth are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 59%.
Why
- Utah Mammoth are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Utah Mammoth — Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.2–2.6 | |
| Utah Mammoth to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 61% | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 39% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 59% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Utah Mammoth
- Utah Mammoth goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Buffalo Sabres4:1
- 09.10away · Boston Bruins1:6
- 07.10away · New Jersey Devils5:3
- 05.10away · New York Rangers2:4
- 04.10away · Columbus Blue Jackets4:1
- 11.10away · Colorado Avalanche6:3
- 09.10away · Vegas Golden Knights3:4 SO
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
Head to head
- 14.01.2026Utah Mammoth — Toronto Maple Leafs6:1
- 06.11.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Utah Mammoth5:3
- 11.03.2025Utah Mammoth — Toronto Maple Leafs3:4 SO
- 25.11.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — Utah Mammoth3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Boston Bruins | 7 | 5 | +10 | 10 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Utah Mammoth | 7 | 5 | +8 | 10 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Ottawa Senators | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Next matches
- Toronto Maple LeafsBuffalo Sabres16 October · NHL45552The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.0
- Edmonton OilersUtah Mammoth16 October · NHL52481The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:26.0
NHL on the same day
- 59411The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%3:7Final score 3:7. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 56441The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 59411The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.6
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%2:3SOFinal score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
- 46542The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
- 48522The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:7Final score 2:7. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →