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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK

Vaxjo — Lulea

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Model prediction for 22 October

Vaxjo45%
Draw in regulation22%
Lulea33%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Vaxjo are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • Vaxjo are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vaxjo — Lulea2.6–2.3
Vaxjo to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Lulea to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Vaxjo
  • Vaxjo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Vaxjo

  • 10.10away · Orebro2:4
  • 08.10Linkoping0:3
  • 03.10Rogle3:2
  • 01.10away · IF Bjorkloven2:4
  • 26.09HV 717:5

Lulea

  • 10.10Timra2:3 OT
  • 08.10Malmo2:3
  • 03.10away · Orebro4:1
  • 01.10away · Linkoping2:0
  • 29.09away · Skelleftea1:6

Head to head

  • 19.02.2026Vaxjo — Lulea2:1
  • 18.12.2025Vaxjo — Lulea1:3
  • 04.12.2025Lulea — Vaxjo2:3
  • 11.10.2025Lulea — Vaxjo5:2
  • 28.03.2025Lulea — Vaxjo3:2 OT

Full record: 21 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • IF BjorklovenMalmopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.1
  • OrebroBrynaspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.1
  • RogleFrolundapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
  • SkellefteaDjurgardenpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.3
  • TimraFarjestadpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →