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KHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · UMMC Arena

Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk

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Model prediction and result

0:3Missed
Yekaterinburg58%
Draw in regulation20%
Khabarovsk21%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Yekaterinburg to win (71% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 71% fails in about 29 matches out of 100 on average.

Yekaterinburg are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • Yekaterinburg are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk2.9–1.8
Yekaterinburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)71%
Khabarovsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)29%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Yekaterinburg
  • Yekaterinburg goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Yekaterinburg

  • 02.10Khabarovsk3:0
  • 30.09Lada3:1
  • 26.09away · Spartak Moscow4:2
  • 24.09away · Cherepovets2:5
  • 22.09away · Shanghai2:3

Khabarovsk

  • 02.10away · Yekaterinburg0:3
  • 29.09Niznekamsk1:0
  • 25.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl3:1
  • 23.09CSKA Moscow0:2
  • 21.09Cherepovets1:4

Head to head

  • 02.10.2026Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk3:0
  • 29.01.2026Khabarovsk — Yekaterinburg5:2
  • 26.01.2026Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk4:2
  • 09.11.2025Khabarovsk — Yekaterinburg3:0
  • 01.10.2025Yekaterinburg — Khabarovsk3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSKA St. Petersburg1481547–44+317
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1481523–20+317
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1362534–32+214
16Dynamo Moscow1662833–46-1314

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • YekaterinburgAvangard Omsk6 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:2.4.6
  • Tractor ChelyabinskKhabarovsk6 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.9

KHL on the same day

  • NiznekamskNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • Spartak MoscowBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 3:4 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →