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KHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Neftekhimik Arena

Niznekamsk — Novosibirsk

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Model prediction and result

3:2Came true
Niznekamsk47%
Draw in regulation23%
Novosibirsk31%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Niznekamsk to win (59% incl. overtime), came true.

Niznekamsk are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • Niznekamsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Niznekamsk 4 wins, Novosibirsk 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Niznekamsk — Novosibirsk2.5–2.1
Niznekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)59%
Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)41%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Niznekamsk
  • Niznekamsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Niznekamsk

  • 02.10Barys Astana4:5 OT
  • 29.09away · Khabarovsk0:1
  • 27.09away · Vladivostok5:3
  • 26.09away · Barys Astana6:3
  • 23.09Lada7:3

Novosibirsk

  • 02.10away · Salavat Ufa4:2
  • 30.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:3
  • 27.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
  • 24.09Bars Kazan2:3 SO
  • 20.09away · Sochi5:1

Head to head

  • 16.09.2026Novosibirsk — Niznekamsk0:3
  • 22.02.2026Niznekamsk — Novosibirsk1:0
  • 04.02.2026Novosibirsk — Niznekamsk2:5
  • 17.01.2026Novosibirsk — Niznekamsk1:3
  • 12.10.2025Niznekamsk — Novosibirsk2:3 SO

Full record: 44 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1590658–41+1718
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow1582538–29+918
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNovosibirsk1663737–47-1015
16, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1462635–36-114

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • NovosibirskSalavat Ufa7 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 1:3.4.6
  • NiznekamskAvangard Omsk8 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.8

KHL on the same day

  • YekaterinburgKhabarovsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • Spartak MoscowBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 3:4 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →