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KHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Megasport Arena

Spartak Moscow — Barys Astana

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Model prediction and result

3:4 SOMissed
Spartak Moscow59%
Draw in regulation19%
Barys Astana22%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:4 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Spartak Moscow to win (71% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 71% fails in about 29 matches out of 100 on average.

Spartak Moscow are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Spartak Moscow are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • Spartak Moscow: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Spartak Moscow 4 wins, Barys Astana 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Spartak Moscow — Barys Astana3.4–2.2
Spartak Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)71%
Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)29%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Spartak Moscow
  • Spartak Moscow goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Spartak Moscow

  • 02.10Magnitogorsk0:2
  • 30.09Tractor Chelyabinsk2:4
  • 26.09Yekaterinburg2:4
  • 24.09Avangard Omsk1:2 OT
  • 20.09away · Salavat Ufa1:3

Barys Astana

  • 02.10away · Niznekamsk5:4 OT
  • 30.09away · Bars Kazan1:4
  • 27.09SKA St. Petersburg3:5
  • 26.09Niznekamsk3:6
  • 22.09away · Dynamo Moscow4:1

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Spartak Moscow — Barys Astana5:3
  • 05.12.2025Barys Astana — Spartak Moscow4:3 OT
  • 04.12.2024Barys Astana — Spartak Moscow2:4
  • 03.10.2024Spartak Moscow — Barys Astana4:2
  • 10.02.2024Barys Astana — Spartak Moscow1:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNizhny Novgorod1491440–25+1519
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1590658–41+1718
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow1582538–29+918
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSKA St. Petersburg1481547–44+317

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • SochiSpartak Moscow7 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 219%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:3.5.2
  • Barys AstanaAvangard Omsk10 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.0

KHL on the same day

  • NiznekamskNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • YekaterinburgKhabarovsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →