KHL · Tuesday, 6 October, 17:00 MSK · UMMC Arena

Yekaterinburg — Avangard Omsk

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Model prediction and result

4:0Missed

Yekaterinburg36%

Draw in regulation23%

Avangard Omsk41%

Model estimate at 16:29 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, Avangard Omsk to win (54% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.

Avangard Omsk are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Yekaterinburg — Avangard Omsk		2.2–2.4
Yekaterinburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)		46%
Avangard Omsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)		54%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Yekaterinburg
Yekaterinburg goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Yekaterinburg

04.10Khabarovsk0:3
02.10Khabarovsk3:0
30.09Lada3:1
26.09away · Spartak Moscow4:2
24.09away · Cherepovets2:5

Avangard Omsk

02.10Lada4:1
28.09Magnitogorsk1:5
24.09away · Spartak Moscow2:1 OT
22.09away · Nizhny Novgorod1:5
20.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk1:2

Head to head

15.09.2026Avangard Omsk — Yekaterinburg3:2 OT
24.02.2026Yekaterinburg — Avangard Omsk5:1
05.02.2026Avangard Omsk — Yekaterinburg2:3 OT
22.01.2026Yekaterinburg — Avangard Omsk1:2 OT
19.10.2025Avangard Omsk — Yekaterinburg3:2 OT

Full record: 50 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Bars Kazan	15	7	1	7	34–35	-1	15
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Yekaterinburg	13	6	2	5	34–32	+2	14
16	Dynamo Moscow	16	6	2	8	33–46	-13	14
18	Novosibirsk	15	5	3	7	33–45	-12	13
19	Avangard Omsk	13	6	0	7	22–34	-12	12
20	Tractor Chelyabinsk	13	5	0	8	24–33	-9	10

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

19:30
NiznekamskAvangard Omsk8 October · KHL
4060
2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.8
17:30
Barys AstanaYekaterinburg14 October · KHL
4258
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8

KHL on the same day

17:00
Tractor ChelyabinskKhabarovsk
6634
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
19:30
SKA St. PetersburgCherepovets
5743
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 3:2.5.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →