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KHL · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK · UMMC Arena

Yekaterinburg — Lada

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Yekaterinburg63%
Draw in regulation19%
Lada18%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Yekaterinburg to win (75% incl. overtime), came true.

Yekaterinburg are clear favourites: 75% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Yekaterinburg are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • Lada: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Yekaterinburg 3 wins, Lada 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Yekaterinburg — Lada3.2–1.8
Yekaterinburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)75%
Lada to win (incl. OT and shootout)25%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Yekaterinburg
  • Yekaterinburg goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Yekaterinburg

  • 26.09away · Spartak Moscow4:2
  • 24.09away · Cherepovets2:5
  • 22.09away · Shanghai2:3
  • 20.09away · Dinamo Minsk3:5
  • 15.09away · Avangard Omsk2:3 OT

Lada

  • 28.09away · Dinamo Minsk4:5
  • 25.09CSKA Moscow0:5
  • 23.09away · Niznekamsk3:7
  • 21.09away · Bars Kazan2:3 OT
  • 16.09Barys Astana0:6

Head to head

  • 30.12.2025Yekaterinburg — Lada4:3
  • 08.09.2025Lada — Yekaterinburg4:3
  • 02.02.2025Lada — Yekaterinburg2:4
  • 24.01.2025Yekaterinburg — Lada5:3
  • 30.12.2024Yekaterinburg — Lada2:3 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1362534–32+214
16Dynamo Moscow1662833–46-1314
21Sochi14301119–49-306
22Lada15141024–59-356

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Avangard OmskLada2 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 117%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
  • YekaterinburgKhabarovsk2 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.6

KHL on the same day

  • Bars KazanBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.0
  • Lokomotiv YaroslavlNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:1.4.0
  • ShanghaiMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 218%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:5.6.1
  • SochiSalavat Ufa
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 219%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.0
  • Spartak MoscowTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →