How the line changes
Early odds (a day or two before the match) are set before the market has gathered all the information. By kick-off the prices are more accurate: news and big bets from professionals have had time to move them. That is why the closing odds are the best guide to the fair price, and a bet that beats the close is a sign of an edge.
| Price | Early CLV | Early result | Closing CLV | Closing result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp line | −3.9% | −4.9% | −3.0% | −4.4% |
| Best price | −1.1% | −2.1% | +0.3% | −1.1% |
| Average bookmaker | −6.4% | −7.1% | −5.9% | −7.0% |
The strategy: an early price above the fair one
We take the best early price on the market when it is at least 2% above the sharp line's fair early price (without the margin). There are 10,646 such bets. On average they are 3.0% better than the close, and 66% of them beat it.
- CLV
- Cash result
Yet the cash result is −1.5%. That is not a contradiction. With average odds of about 3–4 the variance is huge: over 10,646 bets the result is uncertain by about ±4.4%. CLV on the same bets is far more reliable, which is why professionals judge themselves by it, not by a month's profit.
Why it is hard
- You need the sharp line and the prices of many bookmakers at the same time — and fast: a mispricing lasts minutes or hours.
- Early lines take only small stakes.
- Bookmakers see which customers consistently beat the close and cut their limits. That is the main risk of the strategy.