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Accumulators: why the margin multiplies

The margin of each leg is multiplied by the margin of the next. An accumulator of five favourites loses 18% of the stake on average.

  • −4.2%a single bet on a favourite
  • −12.3%a three-leg accumulator
  • −23.1%a six-leg accumulator

What an accumulator is

Several selections in one bet: the odds multiply and the payout is big, but every leg has to win. Bookmakers are keen to offer bonuses and boosted odds on accumulators — and that alone is a reason to be wary.

What history shows

Accumulator results by number of legs1 leg: −4.2% (Best price on the market: +0.3%); 2 legs: −8.3% (Best price on the market: −0.1%); 3 legs: −12.3% (Best price on the market: +0.4%); 4 legs: −14.5% (Best price on the market: −0.2%); 5 legs: −18.0% (Best price on the market: +1.4%); 6 legs: −23.1% (Best price on the market: −0.5%)1 leg: −4.2% · Best price on the market: +0.3%1 leg−4.2%2 legs: −8.3% · Best price on the market: −0.1%2 legs−8.3%3 legs: −12.3% · Best price on the market: +0.4%3 legs−12.3%4 legs: −14.5% · Best price on the market: −0.2%4 legs−14.5%5 legs: −18.0% · Best price on the market: +1.4%5 legs−18.0%6 legs: −23.1% · Best price on the market: −0.5%6 legs−23.1%
  • Average bookmaker
  • Best price on the market
Random accumulators of favourites from different matches at closing odds; 200,000 accumulators for each number of legs.

A single bet on a favourite loses 4.2%. A three-leg accumulator already loses 12.3%, a five-leg one 18.0%, a six-leg one 23.1%. If every leg hands the bookmaker a few per cent, an accumulator multiplies those cuts: less and less is left of every unit staked.

An accumulator of six favourites comes in 1.8% of the time, at typical combined odds of 53.

And at the best price?

If you take the best odds on the market for every leg, there is almost no margin, and accumulators stay around zero: +0.4% for three legs, −0.5% for six. So the trouble is not accumulators as such, but the way the margin adds up in them. However, you cannot build an accumulator from the best prices of different bookmakers: an accumulator is placed with one.

The bottom line

  • Every leg of an accumulator adds margin, not just odds.
  • An accumulator of five or six legs is a lottery in which the bookmaker takes a fifth of the stakes.
  • If you do bet, singles are better: the margin is paid only once.

This is an analysis of history, not advice to bet. Betting means risking money; 18+. The numbers: 43,352 completed matches in 27 football leagues between 15 July 2017 and 13 October 2026; bets on the match result (home win, draw, away win) after 90 minutes. In hockey and basketball the winner includes overtime; a hockey draw is the one after regulation time.

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