How the ladder works
You take a small amount and bet it on a solid favourite at odds of 1.25–1.50. If it wins, the whole return goes on the next favourite like it. And so on, step by step, until the amount reaches the target: 3, 10 or 100 times the start. A loss at any step takes everything.
The appeal is easy to see: the odds are low, favourites win often, and the target is only a few steps away.
What history shows
We ran 50,000 ladders through real matches. Each one starts at a random point in history and goes through favourites priced at 1.25–1.50 by an average bookmaker; there are 5,144 such bets in the database. A favourite like that wins 71.6% of the time at average odds of 1.39: on a single bet the loss is just 1.0%.
- Reached the target
- At fair odds
A ladder to ×10 reaches the target 7.9% of the time. At fair odds it would get there 8.5% of the time — not 10%, because the last step usually overshoots the target: on average the bank at the finish is ×11.7. Of every 100 staked, 93 come back.
The longer the ladder, the more the margin eats: a ladder to ×3 returns 96 of 100, and a ladder to ×100 just 92. Only 0.8% of players get to ×100, against a fair 0.9%.
Where it breaks
Most ladders break at the very start: 29% on the first step, 64% on one of the first three. Getting to ×10 takes 7.6 wins in a row on average.
What about safer favourites?
It seems the risk could be cut by backing only clear favourites, at odds of 1.10–1.25. They win 83.2% of the time. But then getting to ×10 takes 13.8 steps, and the ladder reaches the target 7.0% of the time, returning 76 of 100 — even worse. The margin is taken at every step: the more steps, the more it eats.
What if the model does the picking?
We also tested the ladder on our model's picks: outcomes the model gives between 67% and 80%. That is how the model runs the ladder live in Premium. In past matches these outcomes came in 72.9% of the time, against the model's estimate of 72.3%: the model gets the chances right, but the market rates the same matches just as well, and the odds on these outcomes are almost fair. The ladder to ×10 got there 7.1% of the time (fair: 8.4%) and returned 85 of 100. Without an edge over the market, eight wins in a row are still a lottery.
The ladder in hockey and basketball
Same rules: the whole bank on a favourite at odds of 1.25–1.50 (the winner including overtime) until the bank reaches ×10.
| Sport | Candidate bets | Won | One bet | Reached ×10 | Fair | Back from 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 5,144 | 71.6% | −1.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 93 |
| Hockey | 1,235 | 69.3% | −4.8% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 74 |
| Basketball | 935 | 70.0% | −4.6% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 71 |
The bigger the margin on a single bet, the worse the ladder does: in hockey 74 of every 100 come back and in basketball 71.
The bottom line
- The ladder does not change the maths: it is the same accumulator, just stretched out over time.
- The margin is paid at every step, and a single miss burns everything built up so far.
- It is a lottery with a small stake and a rare big win. It costs about 7% of the stake for every ladder to ×10.