Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, hard · Thursday, 1 October, MSK

Alcaraz C. — Michelsen A.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Alcaraz C.88%
Michelsen A.12%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Alcaraz C. to win (88%), came true.

Alcaraz C. are clear favourites: 88% against 12% for the opponent.

Over 21.5 games — 47%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Alcaraz C. 2066, Michelsen A. 1714.

Probabilities

Games over 21.547%
Games under 21.553%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Alcaraz C. games
  • Michelsen A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Alcaraz C.

No past matches in the data yet.

Michelsen A.

No past matches in the data yet.

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Alcaraz C.Arnaldi M.3 October · ATP · Tokyo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5
  • Van De Zandschulp B.Michelsen A.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 88% will not happen in roughly 12 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →