Tennis: ATP, Beijing, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Djokovic N. — Medvedev D.

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Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Djokovic N.63%
Medvedev D.37%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Djokovic N. to win (63%), came true.

Djokovic N. are clear favourites: 63% against 37% for the opponent.

Over 21.5 games — 53%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Djokovic N. 1986, Medvedev D. 1828.

Probabilities

Games over 21.553%
Games under 21.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Djokovic N. games
  • Medvedev D. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Djokovic N.

  • 04.10Zverev A.2:1
  • 02.10Bu Y.2:1
  • 30.09Borges N.2:0

Medvedev D.

  • 04.10Cerundolo F.2:0
  • 03.10Struff J-L.2:0
  • 02.10Carreno-Busta P.2:0
  • 29.09Rublev A.2:0
  • 28.09Safiullin R.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Djokovic N.De Minaur A.6 October · ATP · Beijing
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • Medvedev D.Struff J-L.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.20.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →