Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, qualifying, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Noguchi R. — Muller A.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Noguchi R.31%
Muller A.69%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Muller A. to win (69%), came true.

Muller A. are clear favourites: 69% against 31% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 50%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Noguchi R. 1503, Muller A. 1545.

Probabilities

Games over 22.550%
Games under 22.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Noguchi R. games
  • Muller A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Noguchi R.

  • 23.09Svrcina D.0:2
  • 22.09Imamura M.2:0

Muller A.

  • 27.09Davidovich Fokina A.0:2
  • 26.09Cina F.2:0
  • 24.09Kouame M.2:0
  • 23.09Bar Biryukov P.2:0
  • 22.09Pavlovic L.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Bellucci M.Muller A.6 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →