Tennis: ATP, Beijing, hard · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK

Zhang Z. — Gea A.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Zhang Z.16%
Gea A.84%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Gea A. to win (84%), came true.

Gea A. are clear favourites: 84% against 16% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 46%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Zhang Z. 1429, Gea A. 1688.

Probabilities

Games over 22.546%
Games under 22.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Zhang Z. games
  • Gea A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Zhang Z.

  • 24.09Wong C.0:2

Gea A.

  • 29.09Machac T.2:0
  • 28.09Te R.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Hurkacz H.Gea A.2 October · ATP · Beijing
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • Zhang Z.Machac T.7 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.25.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.21.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →