Brazilian Serie B: 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 51 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 51 matches 10,000 times. Novorizontino have the best chance to win the title: 45%, Vila Nova 27%. Closest to the drop: América-MG (>99%).
Race for the title
| Date | Criciúma | Novorizontino | Juventude | Vila Nova | Sport Recife | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 March | 18% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 11% | <1% |
| 30 March | 18% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 10% | <1% |
| 6 April | 19% | 3% | <1% | 5% | 9% | <1% |
| 13 April | 16% | 7% | 1% | 6% | 11% | 1% |
| 20 April | 13% | 14% | 2% | 10% | 10% | 1% |
| 27 April | 17% | 8% | 2% | 12% | 15% | 1% |
| 4 May | 16% | 8% | 1% | 13% | 21% | 4% |
| 11 May | 16% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 27% | 4% |
| 18 May | 12% | 11% | 1% | 10% | 18% | 3% |
| 25 May | 10% | 11% | 1% | 8% | 18% | 6% |
| 1 June | 14% | 10% | 1% | 10% | 24% | 4% |
| 8 June | 15% | 8% | 1% | 11% | 22% | 5% |
| 15 June | 16% | 15% | 2% | 9% | 21% | 6% |
| 22 June | 14% | 17% | 3% | 13% | 18% | 3% |
| 29 June | 24% | 28% | 4% | 7% | 11% | 3% |
| 6 July | 28% | 35% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 4% |
| 13 July | 34% | 29% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 3% |
| 20 July | 42% | 21% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| 27 July | 50% | 17% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 3% |
| 3 August | 52% | 17% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 5% |
| 10 August | 47% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 5% | 5% |
| 17 August | 55% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| 24 August | 32% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 8% |
| 31 August | 19% | 29% | 22% | 13% | 3% | 7% |
| 7 September | 27% | 37% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 9% |
| 14 September | 7% | 52% | 15% | 8% | 1% | 8% |
| 21 September | 10% | 40% | 13% | 11% | 1% | 19% |
| 28 September | 7% | 32% | 15% | 19% | <1% | 15% |
| 5 October | 8% | 31% | 28% | 22% | <1% | 5% |
| 12 October | 2% | 42% | 23% | 26% | — | 7% |
| 13 October | 2% | 45% | 22% | 27% | <1% | 4% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Up or play-offs” counts “Promotion” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Promotion | Up or play-offs | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino | 60 (33) | 68 | 2 | 45%▲14 | 72%▲19 | >99%▲5 | — |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 61 (33) | 68 | 1 | 27%▲5 | 52%▲10 | 99%▲6 | — |
| 3 | Juventude | 60 (33) | 67 | 5 | 22%▼6 | 52%▼2 | 99%▲3 | — |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 57 (33) | 64 | 3 | 4%▼1 | 12%▼3 | 84%▲12 | — |
| 5 | Criciúma | 56 (33) | 64 | 8 | 2%▼6 | 9%▼10 | 82%▲2 | — |
| 6 | Atlético-GO | 53 (33) | 60 | 7 | <1%▼4 | 2%▼10 | 50%▼18 | — |
| 7 | CRB | 52 (33) | 60 | 18 | <1% | 1%▼1 | 46%▲16 | — |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 51 (33) | 59 | 11 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 30%▲9 | — |
| 9 | Goiás | 48 (33) | 56 | 20 | — | — | 4%▲3 | — |
| 10 | Operário-PR | 48 (33) | 55 | 15 | — | —▼1 | 3%▼23 | — |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 47 (33) | 55 | 9 | — | — | 3%▼10 | — |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 46 (33) | 53 | 12 | — | — | 1%▼2 | <1% |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 42 (32) | 50 | 13 | — | — | <1% | 3%▲2 |
| 14 | Ceará | 42 (33) | 49 | 16 | — | — | — | 4%▲1 |
| 15 | Náutico | 42 (33) | 48 | 6 | — | — | <1% | 9%▲8 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 41 (33) | 47 | 4 | — | — | — | 11%▼13 |
| 17 | Avaí | 36 (33) | 43 | 19 | — | — | — | 72%▼9 |
| 18 | Londrina | 28 (32) | 36 | 14 | — | — | — | 99%▲7 |
| 19 | América-MG | 17 (33) | 23 | 17 | — | — | — | >99% |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 13 (33) | 17 | 10 | — | — | — | >99% |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 45 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Vila Nova | 27 | 25 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Juventude | 22 | 31 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Fortaleza | 4 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Criciúma | 2 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 24 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Atlético-GO | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| CRB | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Sport Recife | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| Goiás | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| Operário-PR | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||
| Cuiabá | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| São Bernardo | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||
| Athletic Club MG | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 3 | ||||||||||
| Ceará | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 18 | 4 | |||||||||||
| Náutico | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 9 | |||||||||||
| Botafogo SP | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 24 | 28 | 11 | ||||||||||||
| Avaí | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 66 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
| Londrina | 1 | 6 | 93 | |||||||||||||||||
| América-MG | 95 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Ponte Preta | 5 | 95 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Brasileirao Serie B: matches and table →
Brasileirao Serie B: power rankings →