Liga MX (Mexico): 2026 (Apertura) season forecast
10,000 simulations · 56 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 56 matches 10,000 times. CF América have the best chance to win the regular season: 38%, Querétaro FC 23%.
Race for first place
| Date | Toluca | CF América | Chivas | Cruz Azul | Querétaro FC | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 July | 21% | 10% | 7% | 19% | 1% | 11% |
| 27 July | 16% | 7% | 9% | 24% | 2% | 15% |
| 3 August | 27% | 11% | 6% | 15% | 4% | 11% |
| 10 August | 27% | 11% | 6% | 15% | 4% | 11% |
| 17 August | 16% | 21% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 17% |
| 24 August | 24% | 24% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 9% |
| 31 August | 31% | 28% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 18% |
| 7 September | 31% | 27% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 16% |
| 14 September | 39% | 17% | 23% | 6% | 4% | 8% |
| 21 September | 33% | 19% | 29% | 4% | 4% | 8% |
| 28 September | 32% | 36% | 12% | 3% | 10% | 3% |
| 5 October | 32% | 37% | 12% | 3% | 10% | 3% |
| 12 October | 21% | 39% | 10% | 2% | 22% | 2% |
| 13 October | 21% | 38% | 10% | 3% | 23% | 2% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Liguilla |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF América | 21 (10) | 32 | 5 | 38%▲1 | 98% |
| 2 | Querétaro FC | 20 (10) | 31 | 18 | 23%▲13 | 96%▲6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 20 (11) | 31 | 6 | 21%▼11 | 97%▼1 |
| 4 | Chivas | 19 (11) | 30 | 11 | 10%▼2 | 94% |
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 17 (11) | 27 | 8 | 3% | 78%▼1 |
| 6 | Atlas | 18 (11) | 26 | 17 | 2%▲1 | 69%▲7 |
| 7 | Tijuana | 15 (10) | 26 | 7 | 2%▼1 | 65%▼7 |
| 8 | León | 18 (11) | 24 | 1 | 1% | 45%▼3 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 14 (10) | 23 | 4 | 1% | 40%▲4 |
| 10 | Tigres | 13 (11) | 21 | 3 | <1% | 23%▲14 |
| 11 | Pumas | 13 (11) | 21 | 12 | <1% | 23% |
| 12 | Puebla | 15 (11) | 21 | 9 | <1% | 18%▼4 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 13 (11) | 21 | 14 | — | 15%▲8 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 13 (11) | 20 | 2 | <1% | 17%▼6 |
| 15 | Atlético de San Luis | 12 (11) | 20 | 16 | — | 12%▼14 |
| 16 | Atlante | 11 (11) | 19 | 15 | — | 6%▼5 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 9 (11) | 17 | 13 | — | 3% |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 4 (11) | 10 | 10 | — | — |
Chance of every place
Show the 18 × 18 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF América | 38 | 21 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Querétaro FC | 23 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Toluca | 21 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Chivas | 10 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Cruz Azul | 3 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Atlas | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Tijuana | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| León | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Monterrey | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Tigres | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 4 | |||
| Pumas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | |||
| Puebla | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| Santos Laguna | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | ||||
| Pachuca | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 7 | ||||
| Atlético de San Luis | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 1 | ||||
| Atlante | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 2 | |||||
| Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 32 | 6 | ||||||
| FC Juárez | 1 | 2 | 7 | 90 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.