Argentine Liga Profesional · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

Argentinos Juniors — Independiente Rivadavia

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Model prediction for 28 October

Argentinos Juniors51%
Draw28%
Independiente Rivadavia21%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Argentinos Juniors are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Argentinos Juniors are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors — Independiente Rivadavia What is xG?1.4–0.8
Argentinos Juniors not to lose79%
Independiente Rivadavia not to lose49%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.538%
Total under 2.562%

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Form

Argentinos Juniors

  • 11.10away · Club Atlético Platense1:1
  • 05.10Tigre2:1
  • 20.09away · Rosario Central0:1
  • 13.09Gimnasia LP1:1
  • 08.09away · Barracas Central0:0

Independiente Rivadavia

  • 11.10away · Rosario Central0:5
  • 03.10Gimnasia LP1:1
  • 22.09away · Barracas Central1:0
  • 17.09Atlético Tucumán1:1
  • 12.09Aldosivi4:3

Head to head

  • 11.04.2026Independiente Rivadavia — Argentinos Juniors3:1
  • 06.11.2025Independiente Rivadavia — Argentinos Juniors2:2
  • 30.08.2025Independiente Rivadavia — Argentinos Juniors2:1
  • 25.02.2025Argentinos Juniors — Independiente Rivadavia0:0
  • 03.12.2024Independiente Rivadavia — Argentinos Juniors2:1

Full record: 5 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →