Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Atlético Nacional — Santa Fe
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético Nacional are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Nacional are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Nacional — Santa Fe What is xG? | 1.7–0.9 | |
| Atlético Nacional not to lose | 82% | |
| Santa Fe not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Nacional
- Atlético Nacional goals
- Santa Fe goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Tolima0:0
- 01.10Junior FC3:1
- 25.09Millonarios1:1
- 21.09away · Llaneros FC0:2
- 17.09away · Internacional de Bogotá3:2
- 06.10away · Independiente Medellín1:0
- 29.09away · Deportivo Pereira2:1
- 23.09Deportivo Cali0:1
- 20.09away · Alianza FC4:1
- 16.09away · Vasco da Gama0:2
Head to head
- 26.02.2026Santa Fe — Atlético Nacional1:2
- 26.07.2025Atlético Nacional — Santa Fe1:1
- 13.06.2025Santa Fe — Atlético Nacional1:2
- 09.06.2025Atlético Nacional — Santa Fe1:2
- 13.02.2025Santa Fe — Atlético Nacional2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Semi-final groups | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | +10 | 24 |
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 6, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
| 7, Semi-final groups | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | +7 | 22 |
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- América de CaliFortaleza FCpreliminary6224141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →