K League 1 (South Korea), round 31 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Seoul World Cup Stadium
FC Seoul — Jeju SK
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, FC Seoul to win (59%), came true.
FC Seoul are clear favourites: 59% against 16% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Seoul are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Seoul — Jeju SK What is xG? | 1.7–0.8 | |
| FC Seoul not to lose | 84% | |
| Jeju SK not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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- Handicap FC Seoul
- FC Seoul goals
- Jeju SK goals
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Form
- 20.09away · Pohang Steelers1:2
- 12.09away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:1
- 08.09away · Ulsan HD FC0:1
- 05.09Incheon United1:0
- 30.08away · Gwangju FC5:2
- 20.09away · Gangwon FC1:0
- 12.09away · Bucheon FC 19952:2
- 09.09away · Gwangju FC1:0
- 05.09Ulsan HD FC0:0
- 30.08Daejeon Hana Citizen3:1
Head to head
- 09.05.2026Jeju SK — FC Seoul2:1
- 15.03.2026Jeju SK — FC Seoul1:2
- 23.07.2025Jeju SK — FC Seoul3:2
- 31.05.2025FC Seoul — Jeju SK1:3
- 15.02.2025Jeju SK — FC Seoul2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | FC Seoul | 31 | 20 | +32 | 65 |
| 2, Championship round | Ulsan HD FC | 31 | 14 | +4 | 47 |
| 3, Championship round | Gangwon FC | 31 | 11 | +10 | 46 |
| 4, Championship round | Jeju SK | 31 | 12 | +5 | 46 |
| 5, Championship round | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 31 | 11 | +9 | 44 |
Next matches
- Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FCJeju SK18 October · K League 15227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- FC SeoulGimcheon Sangmu18 October · K League 15925161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
K League 1 on the same day
- 4229291The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →