Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 3 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Penafiel — Leça
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Evenly matched: Penafiel 40%, Leça 34%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Penafiel — Leça What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Penafiel not to lose | 66% | |
| Leça not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Penafiel
- Penafiel goals
- Leça goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Oliveirense2:1
- 21.09away · Portimonense SC1:1
- 21.10SC Lusitânia2:3
- 21.09away · UD Tocha4:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- 1320672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- 3627382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
- 7018111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 2926442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 1622622The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →