AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors
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4:5Came true
In short
Final score 4:5: the model's most likely outcome, Bakersfield Condors to win (56% incl. overtime), came true.
Bakersfield Condors are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 61%.
Why
- Bakersfield Condors are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.9.
Facts
- Calgary Wranglers: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Calgary Wranglers 2 wins, Bakersfield Condors 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors | 2.9–3.2 | |
| Calgary Wranglers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 44% | |
| Bakersfield Condors to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 56% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 61% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 39% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Calgary Wranglers
- Calgary Wranglers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Bakersfield Condors2:1
- 04.10Abbotsford Canucks4:2
- 03.10Abbotsford Canucks4:2
- 19.04away · Colorado Eagles7:5
- 18.04away · Colorado Eagles5:2
- 10.10away · Calgary Wranglers1:2
- 05.10away · Henderson Silver Knights3:1
- 04.10away · Henderson Silver Knights3:4
- 27.04away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 26.04away · Coachella Valley Firebirds4:5
Head to head
- 10.10.2026Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors2:1
- 22.03.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers1:0
- 21.02.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers4:5 OT
- 04.02.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers3:2 OT
- 18.01.2026Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors0:1 OT
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Laval Rocket | 4 | 3 | +9 | 6 | .750 |
| 5 | Calgary Wranglers | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 6 | Colorado Eagles | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 19 | Tucson Roadrunners | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | .500 |
| 20 | Bakersfield Condors | 4 | 2 | +1 | 4 | .500 |
| 21 | Charlotte Checkers | 4 | 2 | -1 | 4 | .500 |
Next matches
- San Jose BarracudaCalgary Wranglers14 October · AHL60401The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:26.4
- Bakersfield CondorsCalgary Wranglers18 October · AHL60401The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:26.2
AHL on the same day
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%1:7Final score 1:7. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- 50501The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.7
- 52481The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- 42582The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →